TRUVECTORINDUSTRIES

Industrial & Capital Markets Research

U.S. CapEx & Industrial Demand

Reading the national capital-spending cycle as a demand signal for precision manufacturing.

Data refreshed
Hand-entered figures approved
Sources
FRED, ISM, AMT, SF Fed
Precision. Partnership.
Progress.

Review due. The hand-entered figures were last approved 60 days ago.

Current reading

Expansion

7 straight quarters of accelerating investment.

Investment growth is measured as private nonresidential fixed investment (PNFI), up +12.1% from a year earlier.

0.84 peak correlation

Core orders lead investment by 1 quarter (n = 134).

Investment growth, year over yearLast 8 quarters
Private nonresidential fixed investment, year-over-year growth by quarter Q4 2024 +4.5%; Q1 2025 +5.9%; Q2 2025 +6.4%; Q3 2025 +6.5%; Q4 2025 +8.0%; Q1 2026 +8.2%; Q2 2026 +9.6%; Q3 2026 +12.1%. Q4 2024: +4.5% +4.5% Q42024 Q1 2025: +5.9% +5.9% Q12025 Q2 2025: +6.4% +6.4% Q22025 Q3 2025: +6.5% +6.5% Q32025 Q4 2025: +8.0% +8.0% Q42025 Q1 2026: +8.2% +8.2% Q12026 Q2 2026: +9.6% +9.6% Q22026 Q3 2026: +12.1% +12.1% Q32026
View as table
PNFI year-over-year growth by quarter
QuarterYoY growth
Q4 2024+4.5%
Q1 2025+5.9%
Q2 2025+6.4%
Q3 2025+6.5%
Q4 2025+8.0%
Q1 2026+8.2%
Q2 2026+9.6%
Q3 2026+12.1%

Executive scorecard

Latest reading against the same period a year earlier. Each arrow is a vector: it points up or down with the direction of change, and grows longer and steeper as the change grows (capped at ±40%). hand-entered rows are typed in and approved manually rather than pulled by machine, so treat their trend with more caution.

Indicators: latest reading, year-earlier reading, change, and direction
IndicatorLatestYear earlier YoY changeVector
Core capital-goods ordersLeading · FRED NEWORDER$ millions88,039Sep 202677,591Sep 2025up +13.5%
Unfilled capital-goods ordersCoincident / leading · FRED ANXAUO$ millions318,833Sep 2026301,157Sep 2025up +5.9%
Defense capital-goods ordersLeading, noisy · FRED UDEFNO$ millions, not seasonally adjusted26,363Sep 202625,125Sep 2025up +4.9%
Private nonresidential fixed investmentLagging, the benchmark · FRED PNFI$ billions, annual rate4,946.6Q3 20264,412.2Q3 2025up +12.1%
ISM Manufacturing PMIhand-enteredLeading, fastest · ismworld.orgindex, 50 = no change54.648.7up +12.1%
Machine tool ordershand-enteredLeading, most direct · AMT USMTO$ millions672.7429.0up +56.8%
Manufacturing capacity utilizationCoincident · FRED MCUMFN% of capacity75.9Sep 202675.7Sep 2025up +0.3%
Manufacturing employment, Seattle metroLagging, contrary · FRED SEAT653MFGNthousands of jobs167.9Sep 2026162.5Sep 2025up +3.3%

Orders lead investment

Core capital-goods orders (NEWORDER) growth correlated against investment growth at 0–4 quarter leads, 1992 Q1 – 2026 Q3 (135 quarters).

Correlation between core orders growth and investment growth at 0 to 4 quarter leads 0-quarter lead r = 0.77; 1-quarter lead r = 0.84; 2-quarter lead r = 0.79; 3-quarter lead r = 0.67; 4-quarter lead r = 0.50. Strongest at a 1-quarter lead. 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Same quarter: r = 0.771 (n = 135) 0.77 Same qtr 1-quarter lead: r = 0.838 (n = 134) 0.84 1Q lead 2-quarter lead: r = 0.794 (n = 133) 0.79 2Q lead 3-quarter lead: r = 0.671 (n = 132) 0.67 3Q lead 4-quarter lead: r = 0.499 (n = 131) 0.50 4Q lead Quarters orders lead investment
View as table
Correlation of orders growth with investment growth
LeadCorrelation (r)Quarters (n)
Same quarter0.771135
1-quarter lead0.838134
2-quarter lead0.794133
3-quarter lead0.671132
4-quarter lead0.499131

Best fit: 1-quarter lead, r = 0.84. Orders move first; business investment follows.

Regional: PNW Beige Book

SF Fed Twelfth District, capital-equipment commentary.

  1. Uncertainty was causing businesses to defer capital spending and put projects on hold.

  2. Demand for large capital equipment slowed overall, though packaging machinery remained strong; utilities were investing in infrastructure capacity.

  3. Capital-equipment order pipelines improved; renewed interest in robotics/automation; businesses still dealing with considerable uncertainty.

  4. Demand for capital equipment stable or increasing; customers making cost-saving investments and executing previously delayed purchases.

  5. Manufacturing activity rising modestly; continued investment in productivity-enhancing AI technologies.

Sources & limits

  • NEWORDER, ANXAUO, UDEFNO, PNFI, MCUMFN, SEAT653MFGN: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), full history, refreshed automatically every Monday.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (ismworld.org) and machine tool orders (AMT USMTO): single year-over-year comparison, entered by hand and approved before publishing.
  • Beige Book excerpts: SF Fed Twelfth District, entered by hand.
  • Defense orders (not seasonally adjusted) swing 30–40% month to month on single large program awards. Don't read one month as a trend.
  • Year-over-year correlation between two upward-trending series can overstate true predictive power. No trend-controlled regression has been run.
  • The SF Fed's 0.74 sentiment-index correlation remains unverified and is not tested here.

Data-quality note: PNW manufacturing employment was corrected after an earlier transcription error inverted its trend. Verify any employment figures reused elsewhere against FRED directly.